Penerapan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Pada Sistem Peramalan Tingkat Kemiskinan Di Kabupaten Pidie

Application of the Double Exponential Smoothing Method in the Poverty Level Forecasting System in Pidie District

Abstract

This study aims to forecast the Poverty Line to help the government obtain accurate and fast information. The method used in this research is Double Exponential Smoothing. This method is part of the Poverty line data for the coming year. Furthermore, this study analyzes data patterns, and determines the best parameter values. Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing method uses Alpha (α) and Gamma (γ) parameters. To determine the best parameter value is to use the trial and error method. The best parameter value produces the smallest MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value. The data pattern shows a trend, meaning that the Double Exponential Smoothing method is appropriate for use in this study. The parameter values ​​resulting from the trial and error method are Alpha (α) of 0.7 and Gamma (γ) of 0.1 which produces the smallest measure of accuracy, in this study using MAPE. By observing the results of forecasting that has been done, this forecasting model has a very good performance.

Keywords : Poverty rate, Double Exponential Smoothing Method